Over the past three weeks, oil prices have climbed steadily, driven largely by optimism around U.S.–China trade talks and tightening geopolitical dynamics. Brent crude has surged from roughly $63 to the mid‑$67 range, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) moved from about $61 to $64–65 per barrel. Analysts point to a combination of a weaker dollar and hopes for a trade breakthrough in London as market catalysts. Meanwhile, OPEC+ output rises have been modest, and refinery margins remain healthy—keeping support under crude. That said, wider OPEC+ production increases could later dip prices.
Now, consumers should prepare for sticker shock at the gas pump. Historically, retail gasoline prices lag crude gains by about 1–2 weeks. AAA noted a brief national average dip to $3.14/gallon, but that was before oil’s recent rally. As crude continues to advance and refineries switch to expensive summer‑grade blends, pump prices are likely to rise into the $3.30–3.50 range, with coastal states feeling the pinch most sharply.
On one hand, the fuel inventory overhang and independent refinery margins may temper pump hikes temporarily. On the other, ongoing geopolitical risks—such as the Ukraine conflict—and further trade clashes could drive crude even higher . In a typical backwardated market, current crude demand is outpacing future supply, meaning any shock—like renewed China tariffs—could immediately filter into gas prices .